Breach or Business as Usual?
Is the Trump Administration Throwing Israel Under the Bus?
A Flurry of US Actions and Announcements Cause Concern
For the past two weeks, a series of announcements and actions by the Trump Administration have caused consternation and confusion for Israelis and those who care about Israel. Some of the consternation can be put down to mixed messaging, which may be part of a deliberate attempt by the US Administration to keep their interlocutors on the back foot. This has not prevented a growing sense of unease among many Israelis and Israel supporters.
While much of what has caused alarm has been rumor, some events are on the public record. The Trump Administration announced a ceasefire with the Houthis after a bombing campaign that lasted many weeks. The Administration said the Houthis had agreed to stop threatening international shipping. Trump said the Houthis didn’t want to fight any more. This caused some head scratching in Israel because the Houthis have demonstrated a clear determination to continue fighting with Israel, as shown by daily ballistic missile attacks, including a missile that struck a roadway inside Ben Gurion Airport, injuring 11 people. The Houthis confirmed that their agreement with the United States did not in any way affect their conflict with Israel.
The reaction of dismay in response to the American deal with the Houthis, came from both supporters and critics of Israel's government. Commentators saw it as a sign that Trump is fed up with Netanyahu and pushing ahead with their own Middle East objectives, in spite of Israel’s opposition to much of what they are trying to accomplish. The government and its supporters deny this, insisting that relations are as close as ever.
Also fueling concern, was the resumption of direct talks with Iran. Even commentators on the right wondered if Trump was going soft and compared his Iran policy to Obama’s. Some remarks from Trump’s surrogates seemed to suggest that the US was making concessions. While the talks have just concluded a fourth round, the Americans are now publicly taking a very tough line, insisting that Iran must give up its enrichment capabilities in order to achieve an agreement.
Image: US Envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi Source: (Tatyana Makeyeva/Pool Photo via AP)
Recently, there have been reports that Trump’s representative, Steve Witkoff, told families of hostages still held in Gaza, that Israel is needlessly prolonging the war there. This seemed to be pressure for a quick deal, to release all hostages and end the war, a position closer to Hamas’ demands than Israel’s. While such a deal has not materialized, Hamas decided to release a living hostage as a “good will gesture” to the Americans. Yesterday, Hamas released Edan Alexander, a lone soldier who has American as well as Israeli citizenship. Alexander was held for 584 days and has come out alive, to our great joy and that of many others, Americans, Israelis and well-wishers world-wide. This coincided with Trump’s arrival for a visit to Saudi Arabia.
Image: American Israeli Hostage Edan Alexander freed after 584 days in Hamas Captivity Source: (Instagram/@edan_alexander1)
In response to these developments, Israel agreed to send a delegation to Doha for renewed negotiations, through mediators, with Hamas. Those negotiations were due to start today. Under pressure from coalition partners Netanyahu said today that Israel will not agree to end the war at these talks.
To the horror of much of Israel and many others abroad, it was reported in some quarters that Edan Alexander would be going to Qatar to join President Trump and the Emir of Qatar in some sort of ceremony. It seems now that this will not occur, as Edan’s family announced that he needs to rest due to his medical condition. Edan Alexander did join Witkoff for a ten minute phone call with Trump today.
Also today, in a policy shift that puts the US further out of step with Israel, Trump announced that the US would be lifting all sanctions on Syria and will meet Syria’s President al-Sharaa on May 14. This contrasts sharply with Israel’s wary view of the new Syrian regime, as well as their deployment of troops in southern Syria to protect Syrian Druze. The recent deadly attacks by the Syrian regime on Druze living in the south also make the timing of the US announcement troubling. On a more positive note, some reports indicate that when he meets Trump, al-Sharaa may offer to open talks to join the Abraham accords.
Image: Israel’s President Al-Sharaa in France Source: AFP
Trump’s trip to Saudi Arabia was expected to lead to progress in American cooperation with the Saudis for the development of a civilian nuclear program. In the past, the US has tied progress on this to normalization of Saudi relations with Israel. In another sign that the two country’s interests were diverging, US administration spokespeople indicated that the US would no longer insist on this condition. The US and Saudis would go ahead with nuclear cooperation regardless, it was said.
In Riyadh today, Trump said that it was “his dream” that the Saudis would join the Abraham accords, but that the Saudis would do it on their own timetable. Later they announced deals for over $100 million in US arms sales to Saudi Arabia as well as plans for hundreds of billions of Saudi investment in the United States. Notably missing is any announcement about nuclear cooperation.
Tomorrow, Trump will continue to Doha, where new talks on Gaza were to have begun today.
US and Israel Have Many Interests in Common
It seems to us that the view that the US is turning away from Israel is not correct. While there are disagreements between the Netanyahu government and the Trump administration on tactics, they have similar goals when it comes to Iran. Although the US and Iran are talking, the American demands are such that no agreement is likely unless Iran capitulates on the core issue of its nuclear weapons program.
While Israel’s government does not wish to end the war in Gaza until all hostages are returned and Hamas is removed from power (a position which is a focus of political strife between Netanyahu’s government and the Israeli opposition), the Trump Administration’s pressure for a hostage deal seems to be based on the Witkoff framework which essentially calls for the release of more hostages in return for a further temporary halt in Israeli attacks, more negotiations on the central issues of the war, and the admission of humanitarian aid to Gaza. On the critical issue of removing Hamas from power, the US and Israel agree, although they seem to be at odds on the best way to achieve it.
The Israeli government announced a few days ago that they would delay the intensification of their attacks on Gaza while Trump is in the Middle East. However they have said that unless Hamas releases ten more hostages before Trump goes home, the plans to escalate in Gaza will be put into effect. We have only a few days to see if Hamas is willing to buy itself more time by offering to return additional hostages.
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looks like a bit of cat and mouse game to me... I hope Israel and the US will come out as the cats and the rest will be the mice...
I don't believe there is any other way to remove Hamas from power, end the role of the execrable UN in poisoning more generations with Jew hatred and destroying the tunnels and war making powers than what Israel is doing. The paradigm has to be broken. Sad as it is, the gravest error Netanyahu made is to make the saving of the hostages a primary goal (It is now seen by many as the ONLY goal) of the war. I don't think, merely out of self interest, that Trump will turn towards the policy of Obama and the Biden bunch. But the word for him is eratic. Israel is in an existential fight and needs Fetterman style suppport not eraticness.