Going along with President Biden might be the smart move, but…
The smart move isn’t always the wise move
Today we welcome back Brian Henry with another insightful analysis of the difficult challenges faced by Israel as a result of the war. Please check it out. If you are a paid subscriber you can share your thoughts by leaving a comment.
We’ve heard two pieces of wisdom about the day after Israel defeats Hamas.
Israel’s president, Isaac Herzog – a dovish leftwing kind of guy – had this to say at the World Economic Forum in Davos: “No Israelis in their right mind” are thinking about the peace process right now (here).
And from Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant (the most popular and trusted minister in Israel’s government): “After the war, when it’s over, I think it’s completely clear that Hamas won’t control Gaza. Israel will control [it] militarily” (here).
The wisdom of these positions is obvious from comparing what Israel had to do to free two hostages from Hamas on February 11, compared to its operation in Jenin to eliminate a terror cell on January 30.
Hamas was holding the two Israeli hostages in an apartment building in Rafah – a city still controlled by Hamas. The Israeli rescue required special forces to enter a second-floor apartment, kill the Hamas guards, and bring the hostages out of Rafah in armored cars. The operation involved a pitched battle, with massive support from the Israeli Air Force and with cover supplied by the Navy’s Shayetet 13th commando unit and the 7th Armored Brigade.
Israel reports: “Many terrorists were eliminated tonight in this action” (here).
Image: Simon Marman, 60, Louis Har, 70 rescued from captivity in Gaza. Photo from CNN.
Hamas says 67 or 100 people were killed (they haven’t picked a number yet) and claims the dead include women and children. Unfortunately, that’s quite possible. Innocent Palestinians are suffering grievously because of the war Hamas has unleashed. And rather than ending the war by laying down its weapons and releasing the hostages, Hamas does its best to increase the death of innocents by stationing its fighters among civilian infrastructure.
Contrast the February 11 raid to free hostages, with that of January 30, when Israeli special forces entered the Ibn Sina Hospital in Jenin. The special forces killed three armed Hamas fighters who were hiding out in the hospital while planning a terror attack similar to October 7. The operation took ten minutes, and other than the terrorists, no one was harmed. (Details here.) This was possible, because Jenin is in the West Bank, where Israel maintains overall miliary control.
Jenin is supposed to be fully under the administration of the Palestinian Authority. So theoretically, Palestinian police ought to have arrested or killed these terrorists – and should have stopped Hamas from turning the hospital into a hideout in the first place. But the Palestinian Authority lacks both the inclination and ability to root out terrorists.
Which brings us to why, at the moment, only crazy people are talking about “the peace process” – that seemingly interminable process we once hoped would lead to a Palestinian state and a Jewish state living side by side in peace. Not that Israelis no longer want this. But right now, it’s not feasible.
On the Palestinians side, there are two dominant groups:
#1: Hamas. This is a death cult dedicated to destroying Israel and killing Jews; aims it shares with Iran, which supplies Hamas with weapons, money and training. Before October 7, some people found it hard to believe Hamas and Iran could be serious about their aims. Doubts no longer remain.
#2: The Palestinian Authority (PA), dominated by Fatah: This is Israel’s supposed peace and security partner. But the PA is a profoundly corrupt and pathetically weak regime held in contempt by most Palestinians. According to their pollsters, about 90% of Palestinians want President Abbas to resign. The PA still controls the West Bank only because Israel props it up. If Israel were to pull out, the PA would last only until the hour when Hamas chose to remove it.
Alternatively, if the PA allowed elections right now, Palestinian pollsters tell us that Hamas would win in a landslide. (Though Hamas isn’t nearly as popular in Gaza where Palestinians know what it’s actually like to live under Hamas rule.)
The pollsters also tell us a strong majority of Palestinians support Hamas’s October 7 terrorist attack (72%) – though again with more support in the West Bank (82%) where people don’t have to live with the consequences. (All poll data here.)
This might partly explain why the PA has never condemned Hamas’ atrocities, despite the PA’s supposed position as Israel’s peace partner.
In fact, the PA has always cheered on terrorism. Since Arafat’s death, the PA no longer directs terror attacks against Israel, but it does pay support to the family of any terrorist who ends up in Israeli detention. The longer the sentence (the more heinous the crime), the more money the PA pays out. Indeed, the PA spends 8% of its budget on pensions for terrorists and pays them more than it pays teachers.
Hamas educates children to hate Jews and to kill them. The PA educates children to hate Jews and cheer on the terrorists.
These are Israel’s choices when it comes to peace-making. That is why, at the moment, sane Israelis have set their sights lower: not peace, just security.
Someday I hope to see a Palestinian state living side by side in peace with Israel. It could happen, provided I can live to 100. In the meantime, one of the saddest things I’ve read since October 7 was a special issue of Fathom Journal dedicated to Peacebuilding.
‘The contributors aren’t crazy people – Fathom is always full of intelligent commentary (listen to this brilliant interview with Einat Wilf for example here) – so the contributors weren’t talking about “the peace process” as usually understood: a performance that involves getting the PA and Israeli leaders together to come up with yet another peace plan for the PA to reject. The contributors to the Fathom Journal special issue on Peacebuilding, were talking about building peace from the ground up, with person-to-person projects. Alas, it felt like reading a journal from another galaxy.
There are Palestinians who want peace, and some of them write for Fathom. But these are single voices without a political party, without a following, utterly without influence.
The dominant Palestinian narrative – common to every Palestinian party and their supporters overseas and in Canada as well – is that Israel has no legitimacy. It’s a country that should not exist. That Jews have no connection to the land, and every inch from the Mediterranean Sea to the Jordan River rightfully belongs to the Palestinian Arabs.
As to what should happen to the seven million Jews currently living there – well Hamas is clear; other Palestinian parties prefer to keep this vague.
So why, we might wonder, is President Biden talking about handing over Gaza to the PA and about creating a path to a two-state solution? I’d suggest, Biden is neither crazy, nor anyone’s fool.
Despite Israeli PM Netanyahu’s rejection of the idea, it may turn out that the PA is the only group willing to take on the civil administration of Gaza. Realistically, who else is going to line up for that job?
As for his call for a “credible” path to a two-state resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Biden needs that to pacify Democrats before the election in November.
Even more importantly, Biden needs the appearance of a potential two-state resolution to get a deal with the Saudis. Such a deal might see normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia (once the current war cools down) and might see America providing a security guarantee to the Saudis against Iran. And all that would be very much in Israel’s interest.
None of this requires an actual two-state resolution, just a “credible” path toward one (let’s say). Going along with this might be the smart move. But it might not be a wise move.
Hamas still holds 134 hostages. Almost daily, Israeli soldiers are dying as the army keeps up the pressure on Hamas in order to free those hostages and to remove the threat of future terror attacks from Gaza.
This is a serious business. And in war, truth and clarity are strong allies. Does it make sense to add a war aim that’s bogus or that only crazy people believe in? I think not.
Biden says the path towards peace should start with “urgent” reforms of the PA (here). That I can agree with. And the most urgent reform is for the PA to change its narrative and to start educating for peace. Besides admitting terrorism is bad, the PA needs to say loud and clear that alongside an Arab Palestine, a Jewish Israel belongs in the Middle East, that Jews have been kicking around the neighbourhood for thousands of years and also have a legitimate claim to the land.
It could happen. Also, the Messiah could come. Anything’s possible.
Thanks so much to Brian Henry for his many excellent contributions to Canadian Zionist Forum. I hope you appreciate this one as much as I do. Thank you to our new subscribers and especially our new paid subscribers. I’m grateful for your support of this project. If you are not yet a subscriber, please sign up today.
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An excellent read. And great suggestions for a better world for Israel.