Lebanese Truce Appears Imminent
Is it good for Israel and Lebanon?
Hezbollah Set to Survive Yet Again?
Given, a year of disappointment following optimistic comments from American leaders about the prospects of an imminent truce in Gaza, one might be forgiven for being skeptical of the reports that a truce with Hezbollah is about to be announced. However, the leaks have become more precise in the past day or two.
In the Times of Israel live blog this morning, Lazar Berman writes that Israel’s security cabinet will meet tomorrow to approve a ceasefire in Lebanon. The text was reportedly finalized today. A report from Reuters, also quoted in the Times of Israel live blog says that Lebanon’s Deputy Speaker says that no obstacles remain for the implementation of a truce.
The proposal, reportedly sponsored by the United States and France, has these main elements, according to The Times of Israel daily briefing this morning, as well this report yesterday in the Times of Israel: “ Israel said to agree in principle to Lebanon ceasefire offer, though some issues remain”. These are
Implementation of a sixty day truce in the fighting
Hezbollah to retreat from the border to positions behind the Litani River. In the East, where the Litani is close to the border with Israel, the withdrawal would be further north. The Lebanese army would take up the positions vacated by Hezbollah and would be responsible for preventing Hezbollah from returning to Southern Lebanon.
Israel to withdraw from Lebanon to positions behind the Blue Line.
The border between Israel and Lebanon would be demarcated, addressing Hezbollah’s long standing claims that Israel is still occupying Lebanese territory.
The truce will apparently be overseen by a five member international group. Parties to the truce will report any truce violations to this group which will be tasked with addressing them with the other side. The talks had reportedly been held up by discussions between Israel and the US on a side deal that will affirm Israel’s freedom of action in the event that the terms of the truce are not observed by Hezbollah or enforced by the Lebanese government.
In this Times of Israel report (see What's in the near-finalized, US-brokered Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire deal ) published late on November 25, we learn that Lebanon is committing to control all arms purchases brought into the country. In the past Lebanon has been unable to control the movement of non-government forces and weapons into its territory, whether the PLO in the 1970’s or Hezbollah from the 1980’s until now. Israel has for years conducted a campaign of air strikes and sabotage aimed at stopping Iranian arms from being smuggled to Hezbollah through Syria, without success. If Lebanon now proves capable of preventing arms smuggling, it will be a pleasant surprise.
The latest report indicates that the side deal with the US will allow Israel to act if the truce terms are not enforced. The US is said to prefer that Israel interdicts arms shipments in Syria rather than in Lebanon if possible. Israel was said to have objected to France’s participation in the five nation supervisory panel, due to the increasingly hostile stance of the French government in recent months, but Lebanon insisted that France had to participate. Lebanon was said to have objected to the participation of the UK. The complete makeup of the five nation supervisory panel was not yet known at the time of this writing.
Same Failed Strategy and Expecting a Different Result?
Readers who have followed our recent articles on Lebanon will recall similar promises from the Lebanese government in 2006. It seems odd that Israel would rely on such promises now. In 2006, Hezbollah never complied with their side of the agreement, and neither Lebanon nor the UN made any effort to enforce it. A promise from Hezbollah is worthless.
In 2006, some of the heaviest fighting took place just before the ceasefire. Many Israelis lost their lives in the ground fighting during the time between the passage of resolution 1701 and Israel’s decision to comply three days later. After Israel withdrew, Hezbollah resumed control of the border region, and commenced the military buildup which culminated in the current war in Lebanon. On the other hand, the 2006 war was followed by a long period of quiet on the Northern border.
As in 2006, Israel has continued advancing in recent days in Southern Lebanon, into territory which it will reportedly give up when the truce takes effect. The rocket fire into Israel from Hezbollah has also intensified, causing a number of deaths and injuries among Israeli civilians. In response, Israel has been pounding Hezbollah targets in Beirut and elsewhere in Lebanon.
Sandbags piled in Kibbutz Hanita in Israel’s north amid ongoing Hezbollah rocket fire. —————————Source: Times of Israel
The Times of Israel article linked in the previous paragraph ends by saying it is not yet clear how the supervisory panel for this truce will be more effective than the one that oversaw resolution 1701 in 2006, a resolution that saw Israel withdraw, while Hezbollah reneged on its commitment to disarm and withdraw in favour of the Lebanese armed forces. This does seem to be an important question. How will this agreement be better than the last?
Negative Reaction to the Proposed Truce in Israel
The mayors of two northern towns, which have been evacuated for more than a year, responded negatively to news of the impending ceasefire. (See Mayors of northern border towns slam emerging Hezbollah ceasefire as 'surrender deal'). In the Times of Israel article linked just above, we learn that Metulah mayor David Azoulay and Kiryat Shmonah mayor Avichai Stern both called the truce a “surrender deal”.
“This agreement hastens [a repeat of] October 7 in the north and this cannot happen,” Stern writes on Facebook.
“I don’t understand how we went from total victory to total surrender,” he adds, referring to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s slogan for the war.
“Where will our residents return to? To a destroyed city without security or a horizon? Someone here has lost it.”
Opposition leader Benny Gantz said that northern residents deserved to see the terms of the deal that the security cabinet will be considering tomorrow.
The right wing members of the governing coalition were likewise said to oppose a truce with Hezbollah and reports released at the time of publication seem to throw doubt on the outcome of the security cabinet meeting scheduled for Tuesday evening.
Israeli Gains in the Current Conflict
It is only fair to consider how the current war is different from 2006. Israel has destroyed the entire senior leadership of Hezbollah since the IDF turned its attention to the north in recent months. The infrastructure in the Lebanese border villages, prepared to support an October 7 style invasion of northern Israel, has reportedly also been destroyed.
Israeli troops have been more successful in the ground campaign against Hezbollah’s Radwan force that they were in 2006. Many of the Hezbollah troops are said to have fled rather than defending their positions after Israel’s decapitation of the terrorist organization. Nevertheless, there has been hard fighting and a number of IDF troops have lost their lives in southern Lebanon.
Israel claims to have taken out a large fraction of Hezbollah’s missile capabilities, but these were an order of magnitude larger and more capable than the missile force that existed in 2006. Waves of missiles targeting both the north and the centre of the country over the past few days, show that Hezbollah still has the ability to cause harm to Israelis, and make day-to-day life difficult for millions.
Defenders of the truce point out that the separation of the Lebanese and Gaza fronts is a win for Israel after Hezbollah vowed for the past year to keep attacking Israel as long as Israel was fighting in Gaza. IDF units withdrawn from Lebanon could potentially be deployed to Gaza to intensify the campaign to eradicate Hamas and free the hostages.
Watching with Interest
As this article goes out, most signals continue to indicate that a truce will be agreed in the coming hours. As we have seen, optimism from all parties does not guarantee the outcome. We will be watching with interest to see if everyone will stick to their promises long enough for a truce to come into force.
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Many believe that serious threats from the Biden administration has caused Netanyahu to act now. It is less than 60 days until these incompetent treacherous boobs are gone from office