Thoughts on Syria
Some hope and lots of risks
The World has Changed
The Israeli neighbourhood has changed dramatically in the week since we last wrote here. The ceasefire in Lebanon seems to be holding. Israel continues to act against Hezbollah ceasefire violations, but the developments in Syria may prove much more significant for the future of Hezbollah than anything Israel is doing now in Lebanon.
Hezbollah’s grip on Lebanon and the growth in its power has relied on the steady flow of arms through an established corridor running from Iran through Iraq and through Syria into Lebanon. IDF actions since the start of the ceasefire in Lebanon have targeted this smuggling route, both inside Lebanon and in Syria.
Image: Map of Syria with zones of control by various factions published Dec 9, 2024 —————-Source: BBC
The map above is included to help identify some of the players in Syria after the collapse of the Assad regime. The red area on the Western side of the map is territory controlled by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Turkish backed Islamist group, which took control of Damascus, the Syrian capital, over the weekend. The Mauve area represents the Kurdish area controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The United States cooperates with the SDF in the ongoing fight against the Islamic State (IS). The area in yellow is occupied by Turkish forces. The Turks intervened in the area a few years ago, to keep Kurdish forces from operating on their borders. There has been a report over the weekend of a clash between Turkish supported rebels and the SDF where SDF territory borders the area controlled by the Turks.
The area near the Israeli border is controlled by rebel forces whose affiliation is unclear, according to BBC. Since the fall of Assad, Israel has taken control of the demilitarized zone established at the end of the Yom Kippur war. This move is described as temporary by Israel, pending the establishment of a new government in Syria.
The population in the Israeli border region includes Druze communities, and some sources I read have identified the rebels in this area as Druze forces affiliated with the SDF. As noted on the map, the United States has an outpost in the Southeast dedicated to fighting remaining pockets of Islamic State forces.
Yesterday, Israeli PM Netanyahu said that the collapse of the Assad regime was made possible by Israel’s crippling of Hezbollah during the past few months. This claim seems credible. During the Syrian civil war, Hezbollah provided much of the fighting force that pushed back anti-government forces, and retook territory in Syria’s northwest, including Homs and Aleppo. In the process Hezbollah inflicted great suffering on the Syrian people. By 2017, the Assad government controlled as little as 17% of Syria, but in the following years, Hezbollah, supported by Russian air power gradually reclaimed about two thirds of Syrian territory for the government.
Terry Glavin who covered the Syrian civil war on the ground has lots of valuable information and thoughts to offer at The Real Story.
Implications for Israel
It is too soon to know if a new regime that emerges in Syria will be any more friendly to Israel than the one it replaced. Although the Assad regime always refused to enter peace negotiations with Israel, a truce has been maintained between the two countries for over fifty years, since the end of the Yom Kippur war in 1973. In recent decades, civil war has kept the Syrian regime busy fighting for its own survival, leaving them no opportunity to present a serious threat to Israel. Israel has acted in Syria to prevent the establishment of Hezbollah facilities in areas near its borders.
It seems reasonable to expect that any new Syrian regime will be less friendly to Iran. Those who have followed the Syrian civil war will know that Iranian proxy Hezbollah has been responsible for horrific violence against Syrians who opposed the Assad government. This led to the death of hundreds of thousands and the displacement of millions more. Since then, Hezbollah has controlled a corridor through Syria used to move weapons to Lebanon. It seems likely that Hezbollah will be less able in the future to move weapons through Syria.
If Hezbollah is cut off from its Iranian sources of supply, it’s ability to rebuild and threaten Israel in the future will be compromised. Hezbollah is also the pre-eminent power in Lebanon, drawing support from the Shia Muslim community, but also allied with factions among Lebanese Christians and Sunnis. A political stalemate between Hezbollah supporters and opponents has prevented Lebanon from electing a President since 2023. The Lebanese state has long been powerless to stop Hezbollah from acting in ways that bring harm to Lebanon. The weakening of Hezbollah may present an opportunity for Lebanon to free itself from domination by the Iranian proxy and regain its independence.
Israel has conducted a years-long air campaign aimed at interdicting the flow of arms through Syria, but this did not prevent Hezbollah from being equipped with modern long range Iranian missiles. These missiles have inflicted significant harm on Israelis during the current war, and have tied up forces which might otherwise have been used in Gaza.
The Russian role in the Syrian civil war has also been horrific. Since 2015, Russian air attacks, supposedly targeting ISIS, were mostly directed against the Syrian opposition. Russian bombs killed many Syrian civilians, and they went out of their way to target rescue workers. Nevertheless, Russia’s goal of keeping the Assad regime in power has ended in failure. The future of their air and naval bases in Syria is in doubt. It would be unsurprising if the new Syrian regime is unfriendly to Russia, but whether this will be the case remains to be seen. Some reports indicate Russia has cut a deal with the rebels to keep their bases, but it is too soon to know if this is true.
Update on Gaza
Israel is still fighting in Gaza and there are once again reports of progress in negotiations on a hostage deal. Over the past few days, Israel rescued the body of , Itay Svirsky, a hostage who was murdered in captivity. Itay’s body will be returned to his family for burial. This leaves 100 hostages, some living and some dead still in the hands of Hamas. The Prime Minister met yesterday with groups representing the families of the hostages.
Israel continues tragically to lose soldiers fighting in Gaza and the difficulty of distributing aid there has again been in the news. UNRWA announced last week that it was suspending aid distribution due to rampant looting of aid convoys by Hamas and other armed groups, but somehow found a way to blame Israel for the problem.
Hamas has released video proof of life of two captive soldiers in the past few days. This is seen as psychological warfare against Israel. Some believe that it is a sign that Hamas is now interested in a deal to return all of the hostages and to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza on terms more favourable to Israel. Given how many times such optimism has turned out to be unfounded, we prefer to await developments before expressing any such hope ourselves.
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