Two Ceasefires Continue
For how long?
It’s been a turbulent few days since our last update. While US President Trump has upended the expectations of everyone involved in the diplomacy which produced the current ceasefire in Gaza, the terrorists running Gaza have continued their cruel psychological warfare. Hamas announced on Monday that the three hostages scheduled to be released this coming Saturday would not be freed due to alleged Israeli violations of the ceasefire. At the same time, families of twelve of the remaining hostages have received information that their loved ones are still alive, and living in terrible conditions.
Image: Hostages for whom signs of life have been received recently: L-R from top row: Hostages Matan Angrest; Yosef Chaim Ohana; Gali Berman; middle row: Ziv Berman; Omri Miran; Alon Ohel; bottom row: Nimrod Cohen; Eliya Cohen; Elkana Bohbot; Eitan Mor. (Courtesy) (The families of two others have opted for privacy.) ——-Source: Times of Israel
Hamas’ threat to stop releasing hostages, together with the urgency implied by the poor condition of those released recently, intensifies the anguish of the families and all who care about those still being held, and increases political tension in Israel. The US President jumped in, saying that he thought that all the hostages should be released on Saturday. Otherwise, he said, “all hell will break loose.” The Israeli government put out a series of confusing statements in response, in which they seemed to fall into line with the President’s threat, but privately indicated that the ceasefire would continue if three hostages are released on Saturday as scheduled.
Urgent talks are reportedly in progress aimed at salvaging the ceasefire. Meanwhile plans for a visit by Egyptian President Sisi to the white house are on hold while the Egyptians are reportedly preparing a counter-proposal for the future of Gaza that will offer an alternative to President Trump’s stated intention to relocate the entire population of Gaza to Jordan and Egypt. Arab regimes have unanimously denounced this idea, while Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has praised the President for “thinking outside the box” in which Israel and the Palestinians have been trapped for decades. The US President met with Jordan’s King Abdullah who promised to take in 2000 gravely ill children from Gaza, and then sat uncomfortably while the President elaborated on his plan to move people from Gaza to Jordan.
Hanging over the threatened collapse of the first phase of the ceasefire is the far more difficult problem of the issues that are supposed to be resolved in the next two weeks in order to proceed to phase II of the agreement. This is the fourth week of phase I, which is supposed to last six weeks altogether. With the first phase in crisis, no substantive talks on the second phase have begun. The Trump demand that all hostages must be released this Saturday, would seem to leave the question of what comes next up in the air.
Lebanon
With the Lebanese Armed Forces still unable to enforce the disarmament and withdrawal of Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, Haaretz quoted a Saudi source saying that the Lebanese government agreed to delay the withdrawal of the IDF from the country until the beginning of April. The Israelis reportedly plan to withdraw from much of the territory they still hold into five outposts along the border. However, contradictory reports in this Times of Israel article indicate that the Americans support Israel’s plans, but the Lebanese government has not agreed.
As we have noted a number of times, it is not clear that the Lebanese armed forces have either the capability or the desire to enforce the disarmament and evacuation of Hezbollah, as called for in the ceasefire agreement which came into effect in November. Failing that, it is important that Israel retain the ability to prevent Hezbollah from rebuilding what the IDF destroyed, at great cost, in the months before the truce. Today, the IDF posted on X that Iranian Quds Force has been smuggling cash to Hezbollah on civilian flights through the Beirut Airport. The Lebanese government has undertaken to prevent such transfers, but some of them have gotten through.
Earlier in the week Israel staged an air strike on a Hezbollah smuggling point inside Syria. All of this suggests that Hezbollah has no intention of complying with the ceasefire agreement.
In spite of this, schools have reopened in the formerly evacuated settlements in Israel’s north and families are being encouraged to return.
We continue to pray daily for the return of our captives and for the victory and wellbeing of the soldiers of the IDF. May it be God’s will that all of our captives will be returned to us, and that our enemies will be defeated. May this coming Shabbat bring more of the captives out of the hands of the enemy and may we soon see all of them in the arms of their loved ones.
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There isn't going to be a second phase because Israel cannot agree to end the war with Hamas still in control. Hamas leaving will be a condition and one which obviously will not be met.
Thank you for laying out the points of confusion, and points of contention. Once again, your writings have provided clarity. It's hard to be hopeful, though.