Two Ceasefires Face Challenges

Israel Blocks Release of Over 600 Palestinian Prisoners

The quiet continues on Israel’s northern border and in Gaza, as we enter the sixth and final week of the first phase of the Israel Hamas ceasefire. In the north, Israel withdrew on February 18, from the remaining population centres in southern Lebanon. Units of the Lebanese armed forces took up positions along the border with Israel.

The Lebanese army appears to have made no progress in disarming Hezbollah. For that reason, the IDF has not withdrawn completely from Lebanon, but has remained in five fortified positions on the high ground near the border. These are places which were used by Hezbollah before and during the war, to kill Israelis in the towns and villages along the frontier, and to attack Israeli soldiers patrolling along the border. By retaining control of these positions, Israel hopes to ensure the return of northern residents who have been away from their homes for over 16 months.

Image: Map showing locations of IDF outposts on Lebanese side of the northern border —————-Source: Times of Israel

Residents are being pressed by the government to return to the north. There are deadlines for receiving compensation from the government which depend on their being in the area. Many homes in the north are in ruins, and the task of rebuilding the northern communities remains to be accomplished.

The new Lebanese government has stayed quiet about Israel’s continued presence in southern Lebanon, in spite of demands and threats from Hezbollah in the runup to the deadline. While they have failed to disarm Hezbollah, the new regime have shown some willingness to comply with the other terms of the ceasefire. When Israel identified flights that were being used to bring money to Hezbollah from Iran, the government closed Lebanese air space to those flights.

Yesterday, the funeral of Hassan Nasrallah was held in Beirut. Mourners shouted “Death to Israel” as Israel Air Force jets flew low over the gathering.

Gaza

We’ve written recently about many horrifying developments as living hostages as well as those who have been murdered, are released from Gaza. Hamas continues to stage demeaning ceremonies as it returns living Israeli hostages after a long period of abuse at the hands of their captors. When bodies are returned they are treated in ways that express the contempt of Hamas for their captives and for all Israelis. The truth about the murder of the Bibas family as well as Oded Lifshitz is now known to the world. Israeli forensic experts confirmed that all four had been strangled by their captors in November of 2023. In the case of the children, indignities were committed on the bodies to try to make it seem that they had died in an air strike, as Hamas falsely announced months ago.

Two of those returned alive on Saturday had been held for over ten years. The families of both, one Arab and one Jewish, reported that both men were suffering from devastating effects of years of abuse and neglect.

With all the living hostages slated to be returned in Phase I now free, Israel has refused to return over 600 prisoners slated to be released last Sunday until Hamas agrees to stop staging degrading ceremonies. In retaliation, Hamas has announced that the four bodies slated to be returned on Thursday will not be released.

The first phase of the ceasefire agreement is scheduled to expire this coming Saturday, which will mark the 42nd day of the truce. As part of the first phase, negotiations were to have begun between the parties on an agreement for phase II, which is supposed to end the war and Israel’s presence in Gaza (as demanded by Hamas) and end Hamas rule in Gaza (as required by Israel). Negotiations on phase II were to have begun on the 16th day of the truce, but in fact no negotiations have taken place. This is at least partly due to two interventions by the recently inaugurated US President Trump.

In the runup to the release of hostages at the end of the fourth week of the agreement, the President said that all hostages should be released on that day “or all hell would break loose”. In spite of that, the release of three hostages proceeded as planned on that Saturday. This was followed by the release of four bodies the following Thursday and the release of six living hostages this past Saturday.

The President also previously stated that the residents of Gaza should be relocated somewhere safer, and that the United States would take over Gaza. In Israel, far right factions, including those in the governing coalition, were ecstatic. These groups already support the departure of Palestinians from the territories captured in 1967. Many other Israelis dismissed the idea as unworkable and unjust. The Israeli government seems to have taken the idea seriously, with Netanyahu praising Trump’s vision, and Defence Minister Katz ordering the IDF to prepare a plan to facilitate the “voluntary evacuation of the residents of Gaza.” Meanwhile Egypt and other Arab governments are said to be working on a counter-proposal that would keep the people of Gaza in place. The idea of relocating Gazans has been denounced by Europeans as well as by the governments of the Arab world.

While President Trump’s remarks initially threw into question whether the present ceasefire agreement would proceed to phase II, Hamas offered to release all remaining hostages at once, in return for the fulfillment of its demands for and end to the war and a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. At the same time the US representative Witkoff, responsible for the ceasefire agreement, said that the agreement would most likely proceed to Phase II, and announced that talks to that end would start this week. Netanyahu meanwhile maintained that Israel will not end the war without an end to Hamas rule in Gaza.

With phase I running out, large demonstrations in Israel were held to demand that the ceasefire continue and all hostages be brought home. As of this writing, 63 hostages remain in Gaza (an ongoing war crime), of whom 24 are thought to be alive. On I24 television this week, the nightly panel called “The Israelis” featured heated debate between those calling for an immediate resumption of the war in response to American signals, and those who insisted that the only way to save the remaining hostages is to conclude a Phase II agreement. With the current impasse over the degrading Hamas ceremonies, the future of the Gaza ceasefire seems to hang in the balance.

Dramatic Shift in Global Alignments

Israel’s actions in Gaza are taking place against the backdrop of a dramatic shift of US policy toward Europe and, in particular, the war in Ukraine. In a move that shocked much of the world, the US voted with Russia today at the UN General Assembly, against a resolution calling for an end to Russian aggression in Ukraine and the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity. The same resolution passed last year with only four dissenting votes. Today, Israel voted with the United States, joining Russia and Belarus, Eritrea and North Korea and a handful of other rogue states in opposing the resolution.

As US policy shifts, it appears that Israel’s government is trying to stay in lock step with the Trump administration, but it is not clear to us that Israel’s interests are necessarily aligned with those of the United States, if the US has decided to abandon its 80 year alliance with the democracies of Europe. For example, Greek media reported today that the US has decided to close its base there. The base is a significant conduit for US weapons bound for Ukraine. The US has not confirmed these reports and it’s possible that this story is Russian disinformation.

The shift in US policy has been telegraphed by a number of statements from US figures in the past week, not least the President, who called Ukrainian president Volodomir Zelensky “a dictator” and seemed to blame Zelensky, rather than Putin for starting the war. While Trump walked that particular claim back, he insisted that Zelensky could have easily made a deal with Putin to avoid the war.

Trump also pressed Ukraine to sign over the rights to its minerals to the US in order to “pay back” the money the US had spent supporting Ukraine over the past three years, and called for elections in Ukraine, something which seems impractical with 20% of the country under Russian occupation.

While the US Administration appears to remain very supportive of Israel, the upheaval in the rest of its foreign relations throws many of the assumptions that underly the global order into question. In addition, radical changes in US trade policy also threaten hardship and upheaval for its traditional trading partners.

While we remain focused on events in Israel, the rest of the world is distracted and uncertain, as the dramatic changes in the United States continue to unfold.

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