Who Will Stand with the Jewish Community?

Capital Pride Won't Budge. Israel Heads for Hostage Talks Tomorrow.

Fred Litwin is back with a follow-up on yesterday’s article about Ottawa pride.

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Capital Pride Met Jewish Federation, Brought Nothing to the Table

Once again, I was proved right. Two days ago, in this very Substack I wondered why the Jewish Community would want to talk with Capital Pride

They never met with the Jewish community before they issued their statement. Why would they meet now? And even if they did, do you think there are any words in the English language that could convince them that they have a jejune understanding of the middle east?

Well, the Jewish Federation of Ottawa, along with its community partners, met with the two co-chairs of Capital Pride this week. It didn’t go very well, as the Federation wrote that “Capital Pride’s board has decided they are unwilling to reconsider or act on their position and make this year’s Pride events safe and inclusive for all.”

And so, the Jewish Federation has rightly withdrawn from Capital Pride.

So, the big questions are whether we will now see principled solidarity from the community at large.

Will all our partners now withdraw from Pride? Will Mayor Sutcliffe announce that he will not march as long as the Jews are left out. How about the Toronto Dominion Bank? Will they now tell Pride that they cannot be part of an event that excludes Jews?

What about the other sponsors of Pride? Will Rogers now announce that they stand with the Jewish community? Will the National Arts Centre tell Pride that BDS goes against their principles and that they are out? Will the Canadian Automobile Association tell its members to avoid Pride because they cannot be part of any discrimination against the Jewish Community?

How about the LCBO, Ikea, Giant Tiger, Nokia, Loblaws, BDO, Coca-Cola Bottling Limited, GoodLife Fitness, PCL Construction, and other partners? How many of them will stand with the Jewish community.

And what will the government partners of Pride now say? Will the City of Ottawa and Tourism OPride say that we cannot be part of Pride? How will the Province of Ontario respond? Or the Government of Canada? Will any of the now pull their funding?

And what about people and organization who just want to march in Pride? How many of them will now say they cannot march if their Jewish brethren aren’t there?

I’m not going to hold my breath.

The Jewish Community had stepped up for just about every organization fighting for their rights.

Will anybody step up for ours?

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Fred asks a very good question. We will look to the sponsors of Ottawa Pride for some demonstrations of solidarity with the Ottawa Jewish community.

News about Hostage and Truce Talks: Things are not What They Seem

As the much heralded threat of attack on Israel by Hezbollah and Iran enters its second week, the countries mediating negotiations between Israel and Hamas have called for a meeting with the warring parties on Thursday, August 15. They have stated that the two sides should finalize their agreement, and that if they can’t do it on their own, the mediators will propose language to bridge the remaining differences.

In addition to the threats from Iran, this takes place against the backdrop of an intensified propaganda campaign designed to put pressure on Israel’s government, as well as very public disagreement coming from within Israel on the viability and even the sincerity of its position in the talks.

After months of bad faith behaviour by Hamas, the news is now full of claims that Netanyahu has introduced new demands which would likely torpedo the talks. These stories were echoed by opponents of the government including the hostage forum, which has long suggested that the government is dragging its feet or not giving priority to the release of their loved ones. Even the hostage negotiation team was said to be at odds with Netanyahu over the terms of a deal.

Image: Demonstrators at National Mall Demand a Deal to Free the Captives ——— Source: Getty Images

An article in Commentary, Leaked Documents Vindicate Netanyahu on Ceasefire Deal appears to largely debunk the narrative Netanyahu’s intransigence. In the article, Seth Mandel sums up his position thus:

So: Netanyahu—according to the negotiators who have been criticizing him to the press—is correct on the particulars, but they want him to back down anyway. That’s a legitimate position: They acknowledge the security threat the deal would pose but they believe the harm is outweighed by what Israel would be getting in return.

That calculation is at the heart of every such deal Israel makes with its enemies. Netanyahu himself has made such deals—most notably, the one in which October 7 mastermind Yahya Sinwar was freed. Perhaps that experience has made Netanyahu more hesitant to dismiss the security ramifications of these tradeoffs. But let’s be clear that that tradeoff is what we’re discussing, not some imagined intransigence by the prime minister.

An article in today’s Haaretz says It's Not Capitulation if Everyone From Israel's Defense Chiefs to Iran Wants Gaza Cease-fire , claiming that everyone, including even Iran wants a ceasefire deal. Iranian spokesmen recently said that only a ceasefire deal will prevent it from retaliating against Israel. The clear implication of the second article is that only Netanyahu’s stubbornness stands between Israeli hostages and freedom. Citing polls showing a slight majority of Israelis favour a deal, as well as public statements by the negotiating team and statements by the heads of the security forces that they could tolerate the concessions demanded by Hamas, the article concludes by noting that Iran has now suggested that calling off their retaliatory attack on Israel also depends on a deal:

And in the least gentle coaxing thus far, a senior Iranian official said Tuesday that only a cease-fire in Gaza can keep Tehran from retaliating for the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, which is widely attributed to Israel. The carrot is bringing home the hostages; the stick is a multi-front regional inferno.

The article doesn’t mention the thousand or so Palestinians, many with blood on their hands, who would go free in any hostage deal. It is worth noting that one of the “children” released in the November round recently killed one Israeli and wounded another in drive by shootings in the Jordan Valley, before being killed himself by Israeli security forces.

Unfortunately, the Iranian position may actually ensure that there is no chance of a deal. The one party that the Haaretz oped does not cite as being in favour of a deal is Hamas, and without Hamas there is no deal to be had.

The behaviour of Hamas, now under the unchallenged leadership of October 7 mastermind Sinwar, has not been encouraging. First they rejected the idea of a bridging proposal and insisted that any deal should be based on the counteroffer they made on July 9, right after Biden made his address from the White House. Readers will recall that Biden layed out an Israeli proposal which he pitched as being a very reasonable offer which met Hamas’s previous demands, and which Hamas should accept if it sincerely wanted a deal. In response Hamas reportedly made a number of additional demands, while claiming to accept the offer. The US stated at the time that Hamas had not accepted the offer.

Next, Hamas announced that they would not come to the talks scheduled for tomorrow, but would await Israel’s response to what the mediators put on the table. Israel is sending a delegation, but it is unclear what will happen with Hamas waiting on the sidelines. Hamas then put a further obstacle on the table by saying it would not attend any talks unless Israel stopped fighting.

In response to the Haaretz article linked above, we posted the following comment:

The one actor not mentioned as being on board in the article is Sinwar. And Iran's threat gives him a huge motive to make sure a deal doesn't happen.

Because Sinwar wants a regional conflagration. He wanted it ten months ago and now it's being dangled in front of him. It's the only hope that Sinwar can salvage something from the disaster he's brought down on Gaza and Hamas.

This is why the talks tomorrow are most unlikely to produce a deal in our view. Hamas thought on October 7 that its actions would precipitate a regional war that would draw in Hezbollah and perhaps Iran itself. It saw this multifront war as a way to strike a decisive blow against Israel. Instead Hamas has been left to fight largely on its own and its forces have been devastated by Israel. The threat from Iran offers a ray of hope that their original plan might finally unfold.

While it seems to us that Iran is desperately looking for a a way to escape from the trap it has created for itself, we believe that as long as Hamas has hope that Iran will enter the war, they will not agree to a truce. For Sinwar, his own survival matters much less than his malicious hope that Israel can be mortally wounded. He will gladly become a martyr, along with as many Gazans as necessary in order to fulfill his vision: Israel overwhelmed (God forbid!) by the much more powerful capabilities of Hezbollah, aided by the other Iranian proxies and by Iran itself.

This will most likely not happen. The United States is positioned to defend Israel in the event of a major strike and Israel itself has highly capable defenses. Moreover, Israel will not hesitate to unleash overwhelming force to stop any such attack. But his belief that it is possible is the very reason that Sinwar started this war over ten months ago. Destroying Israel is his primary motivation. Everyone involved would do well to remember that.

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