I'd like to add that I'm not wedded to my position. Attacking Iran's nuclear sites would be a very high risk venture. Likely, Iran would respond with a full-scale missile and drone attack from both Iran and Lebanon. It would be a serious war likely with high casualties in Israel, Iran and Lebanon.
But if Iran gets a nuclear bomb, Israel's strategic position instantly becomes much worse. Best case scenario would then be that Iran becomes much, much more aggressive, with the potential cost of retaliating against Iran being a nuclear war.
Worst case scenario of course is a nuclear strike against Israel. Can we assume they're not crazy enough to do this? I don't think so.
We know Iran is at most 2 weeks from enriching enough uranium for a few bombs. Most likely we won't know when Iran decides to make that final sprint. One day, Iran will just announce it's a done deal. And I'm afraid we have to assume they already have the bombs made; it's just a question of creating the fuel.
Certainly, it would be great if Israel could finish with Hamas, take a year or two off, then take care of Hezbollah, take another break and finally deal with the nuclear threat from Iran.
But Israel doesn't have that luxury. If they don't act against the Iranian nuclear threat now, I think it means they've decided they have to let Iran go nuclear and deal with an Iran armed with nuclear weapons as best they can.
As one whose deep sleep was rudely disturbed, at 1:45 a.m., who ran dazed, down two flights of stairs to my building's shelter, then dragged through Sunday as a result, and whose family members around Israel experienced same, while I agree with both David and Brian, a definite preference goes to Brian's opinion. It's now a Now or Never issue. We've been 'dreying' (tippy toeing and pussy footing around) around for six months. This has only brought us from bad to worse. If we don't act actively now, it is no use toting around empty threats. Action speaks louder (and volumes) than words. Just as demanding the hostages' release 'Achshav, achshav, acshav', so should we do something. The time really IS NOW!
Thanks Adina. I'd like Israel to take advantage of the surge in international support to deal with the Iranian sponsored threats on its borders. Happy to see that Israel continues to use superb intelligence to take out the leadership of Hezbollah. I think that taking out Iran's nuclear capabilities will require a multinational coalition and, at the moment that doesn't seem to be an option. I believe Israel will exact a big price from Iran, in its own time.
David, you're correct, and likely on the mark. It's about time ( double entendre intended). It IS a matter of timing, at the same time, high time to deal with this. During the time I've been here (nearly half a century!) and well beforehand, time and again we've faced these same issues. THIS time we really mean it and had better do something lasting, if that is even possible. Time will tell!
Two interesting and somewhat differing but also complementary views.
The interesting thing was that this morning's Times of Israel news podcast noted that Israel is taking it easy but that Israel has also been able to do what they needed to do when it suited them and when the time was right. Thus the advice directly or indirectly as is my own opinion, that Israel should bide its time and act when the action will do the most good and can, possibly, outweigh any PR damage. I know that fury is good and easy, but sometimes one needs to cool off a bit before acting rationally...
I appreciate David's point but I am more inclined to agree with the latter argument. See the sad reality is that from a strategic standpoint the United States under Biden is useless. Worse, it's a detriment. The entire world understands completely and entirely that the overriding, indeed the SOLE principle of the Biden administrations geopolitical strategy is to avoid escalation. That means our adversaries can escalate as they wish because Biden will always seek to stop FURTHER escalation. The idea that proactive steps can be taken to change the paradigm is alien to everything this administration stands for. When 10/7 happened and Biden agreed Hamas has to go for one fleeting second we thought perhaps he understood that things had to change. Instead no. He is now demanding the survival of Hamas which is what his demands that Israel forego Rafah mean. He has allowed the US to be hit with virtual impunity by various Iranian proxies and he has let Iran know once again that though the US may help thwart actual attacks he will not allow Israel to eliminate the threat of future attacks. He has also let Putin know that all he has to do is stay the course because while we will provide Ukraine with weapons to stay in the fight we won't give them the weapons needed to win. In this manner Biden increases the risk of escalation. But Israel is NOT Ukraine. Ukraine literally cannot prevail or even survive without western aid. Israel can win its fight against Hamas. It can win its fight against Hezbollah. And if necessary it can prevail against Iran. It is terrible that the US is a massive hindrance. But it can be done. Since Biden has established pure weakness, Israel cannot rely on American deterrence. Israel has to act. Not today. Not tomorrow. First the war with Hamas must be finished and that means going into Rafah. Next Israel must deal with Hezbollah so Israelis in the north can return to their homes. Two strategic defeats provided to Iran in the face of American opposition will go a long way towards restoring Israeli deterrence. Later Israel can decide when it's time to make short work of Iranian nuclear sites. Perhaps by then another administration will be around that will have a realistic outlook and won't sell out Israel for a pretend peace.
Netanyahu 16 years ago made a strategic decision to concentrate on the Palestinian problem while the US would deal with Iran. It should have been obvious by 2009 that Obama not only wouldn't deal with Iran but intended to deliberate strengthen Iran. But he continued down the course of trying to convince the US to deal with Iran. Only Israel is willing to deal with Iran. The Arab allies will quietly support it. But Israel has to be willing to defy the Biden administration.
Thanks Doug. I agree that Israel should deal with Hamas and then Hezbollah first. I was talking with a friend today at lunch and his position on Biden is the same as yours. I agree that the US policy toward Iran seems incoherent at best, But I'm glad that the US sponsored air defense alliance worked so well on Saturday night. This will give Israel some breathing room to deal with the problems on its doorstep.
Basically agree with most; Israel is a very small country not capable of indefinite war. Rearming itself is paramount; they cannot attack at this point. Wait, assess, hopefully this administration will be gone and then strategically or covertly attack.
I agree with all your positions but believe you omit a reality on the ground. The cost of war on two fronts and defense of the Iranian attack has the Israeli economy in a standstill. The US is realistically Israel’s pipeline to rearming their weapons stockpiles. As much as I detest Biden and this useless administration, it remains a reality that the supply chain must remain open.
For the time being yes. There is no option. But long term Israel is capable of producing its own munitions or seeking them out from other sources. What Biden has done of course is force Israel into a long war. Israeli wars must be short and decisive.
Interesting articles, with lots of passion, that is also evident in the comments.
Iran had to take some action against Israel, if Israel is indeed responsible for the killing of terrorist on their soil. But the action that Iran chose - to bomb indiscriminately throughout Israel, is horrific.
And one innocent young soul's life has been forever changed.
But [1] let the world pay attention because the comparison is clear - Iran's actions are what 'attempted genocide' looks like, are what 'attempted War Crimes' look like. And this is not what is happening in Gaza where the IDF are fighting an Hamas army of terrorists who attacked first and with venom.
This time, [2] Israel had the support of many countries during this recent attack, and [3] Israel's is secure once again. I say that these are '3' separate wins.
Israel must be safe. But why "bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities. All of them."? We would be acting exactly as Iran did, and unnecessarily cause the death of so many people.
I'm on the side of strategic, measured, Israeli offensive actions - whether that happens today, or 6 months from today!
After their indiscriminate release of drones and missiles do you believe Iran will hesitate to use a nuke once they obtain one and a delivery system; I for one would rather see Iranians building those devices eliminated; rather than, god forbid, Tel Aviv. Israel must strike those facilities preemptively.
Iran would be insane to attack Israel with Nuclear weapons. Too many Arab countries would be impacted, and too many countries supporting Israel against Iran would be in the wings, ready to retaliate.
Jill, you actually believe that firing over 300 airborne weapons isn’t insane? There is zero sanity for the Mullahs; I believe they’d gladly exchange 10 million of their own to destroy Israel.
Quite interesting discussion. While I do, or did agree a few days ago with the Biden approach, the worst of it was the abstention at the UN. Now sanctions are imposed on Iran, etc. etc. The problem really is, for now, Hamas. Once that is over, the rest of them can be tackled. There is no option but to go into Rafah...
As “ westerners “ we all, myself included, believe Iran to be thinking irrationally. As the Hamas leaders reaction to the death of 3 children and grandchildren displayed; death is welcome if resisting the great satans. To understand them, our military leaders must look at the issue from both sides. I believe Israel understands this.
I'd like to add that I'm not wedded to my position. Attacking Iran's nuclear sites would be a very high risk venture. Likely, Iran would respond with a full-scale missile and drone attack from both Iran and Lebanon. It would be a serious war likely with high casualties in Israel, Iran and Lebanon.
But if Iran gets a nuclear bomb, Israel's strategic position instantly becomes much worse. Best case scenario would then be that Iran becomes much, much more aggressive, with the potential cost of retaliating against Iran being a nuclear war.
Worst case scenario of course is a nuclear strike against Israel. Can we assume they're not crazy enough to do this? I don't think so.
We know Iran is at most 2 weeks from enriching enough uranium for a few bombs. Most likely we won't know when Iran decides to make that final sprint. One day, Iran will just announce it's a done deal. And I'm afraid we have to assume they already have the bombs made; it's just a question of creating the fuel.
Certainly, it would be great if Israel could finish with Hamas, take a year or two off, then take care of Hezbollah, take another break and finally deal with the nuclear threat from Iran.
But Israel doesn't have that luxury. If they don't act against the Iranian nuclear threat now, I think it means they've decided they have to let Iran go nuclear and deal with an Iran armed with nuclear weapons as best they can.
As one whose deep sleep was rudely disturbed, at 1:45 a.m., who ran dazed, down two flights of stairs to my building's shelter, then dragged through Sunday as a result, and whose family members around Israel experienced same, while I agree with both David and Brian, a definite preference goes to Brian's opinion. It's now a Now or Never issue. We've been 'dreying' (tippy toeing and pussy footing around) around for six months. This has only brought us from bad to worse. If we don't act actively now, it is no use toting around empty threats. Action speaks louder (and volumes) than words. Just as demanding the hostages' release 'Achshav, achshav, acshav', so should we do something. The time really IS NOW!
Thanks Adina. I'd like Israel to take advantage of the surge in international support to deal with the Iranian sponsored threats on its borders. Happy to see that Israel continues to use superb intelligence to take out the leadership of Hezbollah. I think that taking out Iran's nuclear capabilities will require a multinational coalition and, at the moment that doesn't seem to be an option. I believe Israel will exact a big price from Iran, in its own time.
David, you're correct, and likely on the mark. It's about time ( double entendre intended). It IS a matter of timing, at the same time, high time to deal with this. During the time I've been here (nearly half a century!) and well beforehand, time and again we've faced these same issues. THIS time we really mean it and had better do something lasting, if that is even possible. Time will tell!
Two interesting and somewhat differing but also complementary views.
The interesting thing was that this morning's Times of Israel news podcast noted that Israel is taking it easy but that Israel has also been able to do what they needed to do when it suited them and when the time was right. Thus the advice directly or indirectly as is my own opinion, that Israel should bide its time and act when the action will do the most good and can, possibly, outweigh any PR damage. I know that fury is good and easy, but sometimes one needs to cool off a bit before acting rationally...
I appreciate David's point but I am more inclined to agree with the latter argument. See the sad reality is that from a strategic standpoint the United States under Biden is useless. Worse, it's a detriment. The entire world understands completely and entirely that the overriding, indeed the SOLE principle of the Biden administrations geopolitical strategy is to avoid escalation. That means our adversaries can escalate as they wish because Biden will always seek to stop FURTHER escalation. The idea that proactive steps can be taken to change the paradigm is alien to everything this administration stands for. When 10/7 happened and Biden agreed Hamas has to go for one fleeting second we thought perhaps he understood that things had to change. Instead no. He is now demanding the survival of Hamas which is what his demands that Israel forego Rafah mean. He has allowed the US to be hit with virtual impunity by various Iranian proxies and he has let Iran know once again that though the US may help thwart actual attacks he will not allow Israel to eliminate the threat of future attacks. He has also let Putin know that all he has to do is stay the course because while we will provide Ukraine with weapons to stay in the fight we won't give them the weapons needed to win. In this manner Biden increases the risk of escalation. But Israel is NOT Ukraine. Ukraine literally cannot prevail or even survive without western aid. Israel can win its fight against Hamas. It can win its fight against Hezbollah. And if necessary it can prevail against Iran. It is terrible that the US is a massive hindrance. But it can be done. Since Biden has established pure weakness, Israel cannot rely on American deterrence. Israel has to act. Not today. Not tomorrow. First the war with Hamas must be finished and that means going into Rafah. Next Israel must deal with Hezbollah so Israelis in the north can return to their homes. Two strategic defeats provided to Iran in the face of American opposition will go a long way towards restoring Israeli deterrence. Later Israel can decide when it's time to make short work of Iranian nuclear sites. Perhaps by then another administration will be around that will have a realistic outlook and won't sell out Israel for a pretend peace.
Netanyahu 16 years ago made a strategic decision to concentrate on the Palestinian problem while the US would deal with Iran. It should have been obvious by 2009 that Obama not only wouldn't deal with Iran but intended to deliberate strengthen Iran. But he continued down the course of trying to convince the US to deal with Iran. Only Israel is willing to deal with Iran. The Arab allies will quietly support it. But Israel has to be willing to defy the Biden administration.
Thanks Doug. I agree that Israel should deal with Hamas and then Hezbollah first. I was talking with a friend today at lunch and his position on Biden is the same as yours. I agree that the US policy toward Iran seems incoherent at best, But I'm glad that the US sponsored air defense alliance worked so well on Saturday night. This will give Israel some breathing room to deal with the problems on its doorstep.
Basically agree with most; Israel is a very small country not capable of indefinite war. Rearming itself is paramount; they cannot attack at this point. Wait, assess, hopefully this administration will be gone and then strategically or covertly attack.
Doug,
I agree with all your positions but believe you omit a reality on the ground. The cost of war on two fronts and defense of the Iranian attack has the Israeli economy in a standstill. The US is realistically Israel’s pipeline to rearming their weapons stockpiles. As much as I detest Biden and this useless administration, it remains a reality that the supply chain must remain open.
For the time being yes. There is no option. But long term Israel is capable of producing its own munitions or seeking them out from other sources. What Biden has done of course is force Israel into a long war. Israeli wars must be short and decisive.
Interesting articles, with lots of passion, that is also evident in the comments.
Iran had to take some action against Israel, if Israel is indeed responsible for the killing of terrorist on their soil. But the action that Iran chose - to bomb indiscriminately throughout Israel, is horrific.
And one innocent young soul's life has been forever changed.
But [1] let the world pay attention because the comparison is clear - Iran's actions are what 'attempted genocide' looks like, are what 'attempted War Crimes' look like. And this is not what is happening in Gaza where the IDF are fighting an Hamas army of terrorists who attacked first and with venom.
This time, [2] Israel had the support of many countries during this recent attack, and [3] Israel's is secure once again. I say that these are '3' separate wins.
Israel must be safe. But why "bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities. All of them."? We would be acting exactly as Iran did, and unnecessarily cause the death of so many people.
I'm on the side of strategic, measured, Israeli offensive actions - whether that happens today, or 6 months from today!
Jill,
After their indiscriminate release of drones and missiles do you believe Iran will hesitate to use a nuke once they obtain one and a delivery system; I for one would rather see Iranians building those devices eliminated; rather than, god forbid, Tel Aviv. Israel must strike those facilities preemptively.
Iran would be insane to attack Israel with Nuclear weapons. Too many Arab countries would be impacted, and too many countries supporting Israel against Iran would be in the wings, ready to retaliate.
On how Biden sees the world, this piece in Fathom Journal is enlightening. Is it right? I don't know. But it fits the facts:
https://fathomjournal.org/is-hamas-winning-an-interview-with-michael-doran/
Jill, you actually believe that firing over 300 airborne weapons isn’t insane? There is zero sanity for the Mullahs; I believe they’d gladly exchange 10 million of their own to destroy Israel.
Quite interesting discussion. While I do, or did agree a few days ago with the Biden approach, the worst of it was the abstention at the UN. Now sanctions are imposed on Iran, etc. etc. The problem really is, for now, Hamas. Once that is over, the rest of them can be tackled. There is no option but to go into Rafah...
Agnes et al:
As “ westerners “ we all, myself included, believe Iran to be thinking irrationally. As the Hamas leaders reaction to the death of 3 children and grandchildren displayed; death is welcome if resisting the great satans. To understand them, our military leaders must look at the issue from both sides. I believe Israel understands this.