What Is There Left to Talk About?
Hostage Negotiations Reportedly Continue
On May 2, the Times of Israel reported that Hamas was opposed to the mediators’ latest proposal for a hostage deal, but that “talks would continue”. The proposal was reported to involve the release of only 33 hostages, rather than the 40 which has been under discussion for months, because Hamas claims that they don’t have 40 who meet the criteria of the proposal (women soldiers, elderly or badly injured). In spite of the reduced number of hostages on offer Israel reportedly agreed to a 40 day pause.
Osama Hamdan, a Hamas official based in Lebanon, told the Hezbollah-affiliated Al-Manar TV, “Our position on the current negotiating paper is negative.”
The deal was also said to involve the release of large numbers of Palestinian prisoners, including many who have killed Israelis, as well as new Israeli concessions on allowing Palestinians to return to the northern part of the Gaza strip.
The Americans were saying supportive things about Israel’s position. As reported in Times of Israel, US Secretary of State, who has called Israel’s offer “extraordinarily generous” continues to blame Hamas for the absence of an agreement.
United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Thursday it was clear Israel was willing to make “big compromises” in order to achieve a truce and hostage release deal with Hamas, and that the terror group was responsible for ensuring such a deal comes to fruition.
The Americans continue to insist that Israel shouldn’t conduct a Rafah operation, while Netanyahu continues to say that a Rafah operation is imminent. The behaviour of the Israeli government over the many weeks since the IDF indicated its readiness for Rafah suggests otherwise. And if Hamas doesn’t think Israel will attack Rafah what incentive to they have to come to a hostage deal?
Does Hamas want a ceasefire? What has been happening in Gaza for the past number of weeks? When is the last time Israel announced any offensive operations against Hamas in Gaza? The last Israeli regular army units left Gaza a couple of weeks ago leaving only reservists to patrol a narrow strip of territory which is the only area in Gaza where the IDF maintains a presence. A de facto ceasefire has been in place for a while.
Does Hamas want more food aid to come into Gaza so that they can restock their supplies? Since the accidental killing of seven World Central Kitchen aid workers a month ago, Israel has been doing whatever it can to accommodate American demands to get food aid into Gaza. The Americans presided over the inaugural delivery of Jordanian food into Gaza through the reopened Erez Crossing. The shipment was handled by UNRWA in spite of Israel’s issues with that Hamas compromised UN Agency. Hamas almost immediately seized the shipment. Apparently realizing that this was embarrassing for the Americans, Hamas reportedly gave the shipment back to UNRWA. The Americans are reportedly irked with Hamas, and, for the first time, acknowledged what we all know has been happening for months. Hamas stole the relief supplies.
The Americans are also dangling the prospect of Saudi normalization in front of the Israelis, but only at the price of Israeli acceptance of the inevitability of a Palestinian State in the territories captured in 1967. This is an idea that a lot of Israelis had given up on even before October 7. It is also something that could not happen without the replacement of the present Israeli government, which includes two parties which explicitly oppose any territorial concessions by Israel. Even if support came from other quarters, it would require a dramatic and unlikely change of position by Netanyahu who has built his entire political career on opposition to a Palestinian state.
What will happen if Hamas refuses to make a deal? Based on the record so far, holding out is a winning strategy. While the hostage talks have dragged on, the campus protests in North America have spread like wildfire. Are the protesters aware that Hamas is holding up a hostage deal? Are they even aware that Israel is fighting Hamas in Gaza? The only sign you will see that Hamas is an issue for protesters occurs when the extremists among them praise and justify the atrocities of October 7.
Demonstrators on campus are demanding that their universities divest from companies doing business with Israel, and making life difficult for Jews on North American campuses. This is part of the long term effort by “human rights” NGOs, launched at Durban in 2001, to isolate Israel and get the world to treat it like the regime in Apartheid era South Africa. This campaign is explicitly about regime change in Israel in the distant future, not about helping the people of Gaza today.
Image: Protesters at McGill University in Montreal with a sign calling for a boycott of Israel and repeating the libel of “Israeli Apartheid”. —- Source: City News Everywhere
The protesters themselves don’t say a word about the release of hostages. They treat anyone connected with Israel as a pariah. They repeat the unsubstantiated claim that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza. Hamas praises them in the media. How are the campus protests anything but encouragement to Hamas to remain intransigent?
On the international scene this week, we have seen Colombia break off diplomatic relations and Turkiye impose a trade embargo. Several European countries are in the process of recognizing a state of Palestine. American and British governments have imposed sanctions on Israeli individuals and there is a rumor that the Americans are going to put sanctions on a unit of the IDF. What should Hamas conclude from this?
The Americans announced today that they are close to a deal with Saudi Arabia, but that it would not advance without Israeli agreement on a pathway to a Palestinian state. As mentioned above, this puts the current Israeli government in an impossible position. The Biden administration is pursuing its own agenda as it tries to engineer a political win even as they face pressure from the anti-Israel faction of Biden’s own party. The situation also creates plenty of opportunities for Republicans to say that Biden is showing weakness in the face of anti-Israel protests at home and anti-Israel terrorists abroad.
Try to imagine that you are the leadership of Hamas. When Israel threatens for the tenth time to launch an invasion of Rafah and the Americans say firmly yet again that they are opposed to this, are you worried that Israel is going to attack Rafah? What would freeing thirty three Israeli hostages get you that you aren’t already getting for free? Are 1000 freed Palestinians, including hardened criminals worth the price of 33 hostages when just one, Gilad Shalit, was worth 1000 by himself?
And ask yourself what price Hamas will pay if it continues to delay a decision while attending hostage “negotiations”? Over the many weeks that Hamas has repeatedly rejected ever more generous Israeli offers, have things gotten better or worse for Hamas? It seems clear that their position is getting stronger with each passing week. Until that changes, Hamas has no reason to agree to give up a single hostage.
The spring weather has finally arrived here in Ottawa and as Shabbat comes in, we look forward to a warm and pleasant weekend. We hope that the Passover holiday has been meaningful for those of you who celebrated.
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Wishing a peaceful Shabbat to all those observing and we continue to pray for the rescue from captivity of our hostages and the victory of the Israel Defense Forces against all those who seek to harm the land and people of Israel. The people of Israel lives. Am Yisrael Chai.
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Man was that depressing. But I can't disagree with a word. We know what Biden and company are. But the question must be asked. WHAT THE HELL IS NETANYAHU THINKING?